Characteristics of our Method
to business needs and practice
Calibrated to experience
Full archiving of performance
Flexible reporting options
The consultants of Scenario Architects
will use a
to build your scenarios. This starts with our initial
conversations to determine your specific requirements and
objectives, and for us to describe our approach, the timing, and
the resources expected for each step...
including the amount of direct
client participation in order to create the scenarios you desire.
An initial project cost and time estimate is made at this time.
We then determine what type and
amount of information is required to populate the foundation
data base used when creating your scenarios. This data base will
become your unique "Living Blueprint"
A Living Blueprint is a structured business-specific
working profile that fully describes the businesses, products, or activities
(the "entity") to be modeled. It captures your business experience,
much like the pixels of a drawing object that when correctly put
together form a coherent picture. The Blueprint contains information
about the nature of the entity including description of products
or services, capacity, costs, personnel, competition, resources,
locations, etc...information covering all the functions that
make up the entity. Ultimately the calibrated Living
Blueprint is merged with the DeSASim Engine to initialize the
A major step in this process is to crisply define
the required data elements and determine how to best collect
this information. The class of information consists of
data that should be readily available and easily understood by
functional personnel. A task will be to assign personnel
to work with us to collect the data in a convenient manner.
This is not a lot of data, but it does cover a wide spectrum of
operations and functions. A computer application for data entry
is available that defines each data element.
As much as possible, we'd like to
conduct work-sessions using video conferencing
technology or email. If equal or
better than site visits, this method of working would be
Once data collection is complete,
we'll link the data and calibrate the Living Blueprint.
The object here is to create a realistic "static" model of the
business that resembles a base year performance. At this
point, the DeSASim Engine is tuned to accurately reflect your
experience. Once this is completed the system is ready to
begin developing scenarios. (See
an example of how scenarios evolve on the right side of this
Working with realistic strategic scenarios is
an exciting and dynamic process - full of endless possibilities, energy, creative
thinking, team and individual effort. As the scenario exploration
begins, a number of things will happen:
- You'll see, broadly and in quantitative
terms, the expected financial and operational performance over time of your business
while pursuing a particular set of assumptions.
- All persons engaged in this collaborative process will see the same metrics, trends, and comparisons
but each from their own perspectives. They'll
agree with or question the results, assumptions and/or method.
- Their observations and insights will likely lead to additional scenarios, continuing to focus on
interesting and important strategic issues.
You'll decide what assumptions
to pose to the system and the time period over which to proceed
- a month, year, or up to 10 years in the future. The type
and number of exploration will depend on interim outcomes and
Typical specific issues you may wish
to explore would be:
- Higher (or lower) raw materials prices
- A new competitor
- A shift in consumer preference
- A change in pricing policy
- Restructuring the production schedule
- Doubling the advertising budget
- Eliminating a product line
- Reducing headcount
- Cutting inventory levels
Or you may have more general issues and intent like:
- Explore important financial, worth and operational
performance measures that enables people to clearly understand what makes
the business "tick"
- Determine where to get the most leverage to improve
performance or to know what actions to avoid
- Reduce uncertainties at low risk and low
- Provide the means to develop an integrated, on-demand data base of
strategic information for employees,
colleagues and stakeholders.
- Explore new routes to increase Shareholder
- Use the system as a unique business teaching tool
All results are archived for
review, comparison, and rework as needed. The system is
adaptable to changing conditions and requirements. Once
the initial Living Blueprint is developed, we recommend
those persons responsible for each type of information monitor
changes and advise when an update should be made. This
keeps subsequent scenarios aligned with changing events and