Looking at the Future of your Business

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Characteristics of our Method
 Collaborative process
Structured method
 Adaptable to business needs and practice
Specific benchmarks
Flexible timing
Calibrated to experience
Full archiving of performance
Flexible reporting options
Executive-type formatted presentations


The consultants of Scenario Architects
will use a structured method to build your scenarios.  This starts with our initial conversations to determine your specific requirements and objectives, and for us to describe our approach, the timing, and the resources expected for each step... including the amount of direct client participation in order to create the scenarios you desire.  An initial project cost and time estimate is made at this time.

We then determine what type and amount of information is required to populate the foundation data base used when creating your scenarios. This data base will become your unique "Living Blueprint" .  A Living Blueprint is a structured business-specific working profile that fully describes the businesses, products, or activities (the "entity") to be modeled.  It captures your business experience, much like the pixels of a drawing object that when correctly put together form a coherent picture.  The Blueprint contains information about the nature of the entity including description of products or services, capacity, costs, personnel, competition, resources, locations, etc...information covering all the functions that make up the entity.  Ultimately the calibrated Living Blueprint is merged with the DeSASim Engine to initialize the scenario-development process.

A major step in this process is to crisply define the required data elements and determine how to best collect this information.  The class of information consists of data that should be readily available and easily understood by functional personnel.  A task will be to assign personnel to work with us to collect the data in a convenient manner.  This is not a lot of data, but it does cover a wide spectrum of operations and functions. A computer application for data entry is available that defines each data element.

As much as possible, we'd like to conduct work-sessions using video conferencing technology or email.  If equal or better than site visits, this method of working would be preferred.

Once data collection is complete, we'll link the data and calibrate the Living Blueprint.  The object here is to create a realistic "static" model of the business that resembles a base year performance.  At this point, the DeSASim Engine is tuned to accurately reflect your experience.  Once this is completed the system is ready to begin developing scenarios.  (See an example of how scenarios evolve on the right side of this page)

Working with realistic strategic scenarios is an exciting and dynamic process - full of endless possibilities, energy, creative thinking, team and individual effort.  As the scenario exploration begins, a number of things will happen:

  • You'll see, broadly and in quantitative terms, the expected financial and operational performance over time of your business while pursuing a particular set of assumptions.
  • All persons engaged in this collaborative process will see the same metrics, trends, and comparisons but each from their own perspectives.  They'll agree with or question the results, assumptions and/or method.
  • Their observations and insights will likely lead to additional scenarios, continuing to focus on interesting and important strategic issues.

You'll decide what assumptions to pose to the system and the time period over which to proceed - a month, year, or up to 10 years in the future.  The type and number of exploration will depend on interim outcomes and your requirements.

Typical specific issues you may wish to explore would be:

  • Higher (or lower) raw materials prices
  • A new competitor
  • A shift in consumer preference
  • A change in pricing policy
  • Restructuring the production schedule
  • Doubling the advertising budget
  • Eliminating a product line
  • Reducing headcount
  • Cutting inventory levels

Or you may have more general issues and intent like:

  • Explore important financial, worth and operational performance measures that enables people to clearly understand what makes the business "tick"
  • Determine where to get the most leverage to improve performance or to know what actions to avoid
  • Reduce uncertainties at low risk and low cost
  • Provide the means to develop an integrated, on-demand data base of strategic information for employees, colleagues and stakeholders.
  • Explore new routes to increase Shareholder Value
  • Use the system as a unique business teaching tool

All results are archived for review, comparison, and rework as needed.  The system is adaptable to changing conditions and requirements.  Once the initial Living Blueprint is developed, we recommend those persons responsible for each type of information monitor changes and advise when an update should be made.  This keeps subsequent scenarios aligned with changing events and policies.

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How scenarios
evolve

.


The current 'state' of a business


First 2 alternative scenarios designed


First 2 scenarios archived; 2 more designed


One design selected; 2 additional scenarios designed based on selectee's assumptions



One of the new designs selected; 2 additional scenarios designed based on latest selectee's assumptions



One of the last scenarios designed is accepted as the one to pursue; all others archived


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